Powell's signal of coming rate cuts completed a Fed shift that began in January when it acknowledged emerging job market risks, and now it has made countering those its top job.

The open question: Are a weakening job market and rising unemployment rate evidence of an economy settling into a healthy place of steady growth with little upside risk to the jobless rate or part of a slide that will gather speed?

The answer will appear in upcoming employment reports and shape how far and fast the Fed will have to cut rates to prevent what Powell called an "unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions."

"We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions," Powell said, remarks that seemed to set the current 4.3% unemployment rate as a level he would like to defend as he made the sour admission that "conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic."

The jobless rate was 4.1% and falling when Powell became chair in 2018, falling as low as 3.5% in 2019 without raising inflation concerns - conditions Powell said he hoped he could recreate after COVID-19 threw the economy into a tailspin.

Today's Fed rate of 5.25%-5.50% is seen as restricting the economy and putting jobs at risk and is well above officials' median estimate of 2.8% for the longer-term "neutral" rate. Assuming inflation continues ebbing towards the Fed's 2% target, job market changes will determine how fast officials head toward that neutral level and whether they need to go even lower to restore full employment.

Powell's signal of coming rate cuts completed a Fed shift that began in January when it acknowledged emerging job market risks, and now it has made countering those its top job.

The open question: Are a weakening job market and rising unemployment rate evidence of an economy settling into a healthy place of steady growth with little upside risk to the jobless rate or part of a slide that will gather speed?

The answer will appear in upcoming employment reports and shape how far and fast the Fed will have to cut rates to prevent what Powell called an "unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions."

"We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions," Powell said, remarks that seemed to set the current 4.3% unemployment rate as a level he would like to defend as he made the sour admission that "conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic."

The jobless rate was 4.1% and falling when Powell became chair in 2018, falling as low as 3.5% in 2019 without raising inflation concerns - conditions Powell said he hoped he could recreate after COVID-19 threw the economy into a tailspin.

Today's Fed rate of 5.25%-5.50% is seen as restricting the economy and putting jobs at risk and is well above officials' median estimate of 2.8% for the longer-term "neutral" rate. Assuming inflation continues ebbing towards the Fed's 2% target, job market changes will determine how fast officials head toward that neutral level and whether they need to go even lower to restore full employment.